11/23/05 Malthusian Catastrophe
Thinking more about all this "Peak Oil" speak and discovering much info and energy around the subject. A debate is smoldering between Greens and Conservatives, with the Greens shouting "overconsumption" and the conservatives shouting "overpopulation". Where do I stand? That's a tough one! I think we need to take steps in ALL directions to prevent a Malthusian Catastrophe. In the back of my mind I tend to bury my head in the sand and try to insulate myself and/or my descendents of the professed inevitable. The Greens have a page that calculates your footprint in acres of land. The page has discrete input, so it isn't very accurate. It also makes many assumptions, for example each 2500 sq. ft. U.S. house will have the same impact as another. 2 very important questions are: How old is the house you live in, and when was the last time your house was remodeled? An interesting fact presented is that there are 4.5 biologically productive acres per person on this planet. If I was Vegan, lived in a 1000 sqft. house with 3 other people and never drove or flew anywhere, I would use 5 acres. 1.7 for food, 2 for shelter and 1.2 for goods/services. But what if my cabin was 50 years old and never had been remodeled? Then I would use 3 acres. See my point? Tweaking the limits of the model gives a result of 129 acres or 28.9 planets.
"Cannibals and Kings" looks like an interesting read.
Steve Cords loaned me this book by Peter Huber called "The Bottomless Well: The Twilight of Fuel, the Virtue of Waste, and Why We Will Never Run Out of Energy". There is a lot of info here and the bottom line is "waste is necessary" and nuclear/coal power will save our asses. There are some concerns that I still have: how will we create fertilizer from nuclear power? How difficult will it be to create plastics from coal? Check out the book list at Peak Oil on Wiki.
Here's another interesting one: "The Environmental Case for Nuclear Power".
So you'd like to guide on amazon.com.. Here's one that's sure to brighten your spririts: Survive Doomsday
10/14/05 Peak Oil
I've been spending some time recently thinking about the possibility of Peak Oil and the ramifications thereof. Reading the book "Long Emergency" by James Howard Kuntsler really awakened me to the seriousness of this concept. There are some who think "peak oil" has already passed, and there are those who think that oil is created perpetually in the core of the earth. Whatever. The basic fact is that there are over 7 billion people in the world that are able to survive because of cheap, readily available oil. If not for the oil, America and Canada would not be able to grow, combine, process and transport the wheat, corn and soybeans that feed an overwhelming number of the 7 billion mouths. Carlos Martinez alerted me to "The Long Emergency" and I highly recommend it. One comment: James Howard Kuntsler writes off a bunch of very good alternative energy solutions. I've working on a solution to the Peak Oil dilemna, which will work when we are ready. The only catch is that we will have to slide back to a much harder life- with the benefit of modern technology. If we merge microcontrollers and modern science with the steam engine, railroads, horses, bicycles, windmills, tree farms, canola oil, fava beans and compost, I think 7 billion can make it- but no more! We must stop the population from steadily increasing, eventually overwhelming this earth. We will certainly experience some major wars as we compete for what is left of the oil. Piracy off of Africa is a ominous sign of things to come.
Collapse and other Doom and Gloom
My father turned me onto the book "Collapse" by Jared Diamond. This book focuses on why societies "choose to fail". He gives many examples of ancient civilizations that failed because of 5 major factors. He relates these factors to where we are today and issues a warning. He does offer hope, with some civilizations such as Japan, that has succeeded in overcoming all these problems. Japan has 74% forest. They don't drive a lot. They grow much of their own food. They are very, very efficient, and they have a very high population density. Jared also wrote "Guns Germs and Steel", which my father
Ron is now reading. Another doom and gloom book is called "In the Wake of the Plague: The Black Death and the World it Made". I'm suffering through this one, as it drags on and on about medieval life and doesn't deal too much with how it relates to today.
11/8/2005- This summer, I set out on a quest to find the answers to the dilemna posed by "The Long Emergency". It didn't take me long to find it- right in
John Evan's garden. John is growing huge vegetables without tractors, ammonium nitrate or pesticides. His raised beds do not require wood or any other material besides dirt and horse manure. The only thing is he uses drip tape and a carport-type greenhouse for growing red bell peppers, anaheim green chiles, canteloupes and other warm-weather crops without heat or even closing the greenhouse every night. If John can grow enough food on a very small plot for his family and many others, hope exists for the future. Certainly we won't be able to commute 50 miles one way in our Dodge Hemi Dually Extended Cab pickup trucks by ourselves, but we will have food to eat- if we learn how to grow it close to home. It will require a much, much larger percentage of our population to be employed in agriculture, and we will have to revert back to a more traditional diet from Big Macs, Slim Fast and Krispy Kremes. Turnips, carrots and cabbage will become more popular. Root cellars will need to be built. People will need to learn to store food once again. But what about central heat? Can we realistically heat with wood? The answer depends on a substantial amount of math. I'm out of time for now, but I hope to write more soon.
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